Results
Model Predictions
Predictions
855
Resolved
Accuracy
49.0%
1X2 hit rate
Value Bets
Value Bets
259/814
Resolved value plays
Flat ROI
-3.7%
Flat 1u stake on each value bet
Kelly P/L
-0.0u
1054.1u wagered
Kelly ROI
-0.0%
Return on Kelly-sized staking
Flat ROI assumes a 1u stake on every value bet. Kelly P/L and Kelly ROI use the recommended Kelly stake for each bet.
By League
| League | Picks | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 130 | 58 | 44.6% |
| La Liga | 79 | 37 | 46.8% |
| Championship | 77 | 36 | 46.8% |
| Serie A | 70 | 41 | 58.6% |
| Ligue 1 | 64 | 28 | 43.8% |
| Bundesliga | 63 | 29 | 46.0% |
| Primeira Liga | 62 | 30 | 48.4% |
| Liga MX | 60 | 25 | 41.7% |
| Eredivisie | 59 | 31 | 52.5% |
| Premier League | 58 | 29 | 50.0% |
| Friendlies | 55 | 28 | 50.9% |
| Premiership | 47 | 27 | 57.4% |
| UEFA Champions League | 21 | 13 | 61.9% |
| World Cup | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| UEFA Nations League | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
By Confidence Tier
| Predictions | Value Bets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier | Picks | Accuracy | Hit Rate | Flat ROI | Units | P/L | Kelly ROI |
| VH | 208 | 63.5% | 71/202 | -6.3% | 348.0u | -20.3u | -5.8% |
| H | 223 | 47.5% | 73/216 | +9.0% | 274.5u | +55.2u | +20.1% |
| M | 303 | 45.2% | 85/282 | -7.7% | 327.1u | -5.3u | -1.6% |
| L | 121 | 36.4% | 30/114 | -13.2% | 104.5u | -29.5u | -28.3% |
By Kelly Unit Tier
| Tier | Hit Rate | Avg Kelly | Flat ROI | Units | P/L | Kelly ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.99u | 123/427 | 0.62u | +1.5% | 264.5u | +9.3u | +3.5% |
| 1.0-1.99u | 55/198 | 1.42u | -21.2% | 280.7u | -66.2u | -23.6% |
| 2.0u+ | 69/156 | 3.26u | +2.9% | 509.0u | +56.8u | +11.2% |
Reconciliation Runs
| Date | Matches | Accuracy | Log Loss | Brier | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 7 | 0.0% | 1.387 | 0.887 | +29.1% |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2 | 0.0% | 1.366 | 0.899 | +56.7% |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 15 | 66.7% | 0.863 | 0.499 | -0.3% |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.898 | 0.531 | -32.7% |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 52 | 51.9% | 1.077 | 0.644 | +7.3% |
| May 17, 2026 | 36 | 44.4% | 1.053 | 0.637 | +3.5% |
| May 16, 2026 | 3 | 33.3% | 1.232 | 0.749 | +0.6% |
| May 15, 2026 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.889 | 0.515 | -11.5% |
Recent Matches
Showing 30 of 100 matched results.