Results
Model Predictions
Predictions
785
Resolved
Accuracy
48.7%
1X2 hit rate
Value Bets
Value Bets
236/762
Resolved value plays
Flat ROI
-6.2%
Flat 1u stake on each value bet
Kelly P/L
-22.1u
975.5u wagered
Kelly ROI
-2.3%
Return on Kelly-sized staking
Flat ROI assumes a 1u stake on every value bet. Kelly P/L and Kelly ROI use the recommended Kelly stake for each bet.
By League
| League | Picks | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 127 | 56 | 44.1% |
| Championship | 77 | 36 | 46.8% |
| La Liga | 69 | 30 | 43.5% |
| Bundesliga | 63 | 29 | 46.0% |
| Primeira Liga | 62 | 30 | 48.4% |
| Serie A | 60 | 35 | 58.3% |
| Liga MX | 57 | 23 | 40.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 56 | 27 | 48.2% |
| Premier League | 52 | 27 | 51.9% |
| Friendlies | 52 | 27 | 51.9% |
| Eredivisie | 50 | 26 | 52.0% |
| Premiership | 43 | 25 | 58.1% |
| UEFA Champions League | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| UEFA Nations League | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
By Confidence Tier
| Predictions | Value Bets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier | Picks | Accuracy | Hit Rate | Flat ROI | Units | P/L | Kelly ROI |
| VH | 186 | 64.5% | 66/182 | -1.5% | 309.1u | -19.5u | -6.3% |
| H | 208 | 47.6% | 64/203 | -4.4% | 251.5u | -5.8u | -2.3% |
| M | 279 | 44.1% | 81/269 | -4.0% | 311.5u | +44.7u | +14.3% |
| L | 112 | 35.7% | 25/108 | -23.0% | 103.4u | -41.5u | -40.2% |
By Kelly Unit Tier
| Tier | Hit Rate | Avg Kelly | Flat ROI | Units | P/L | Kelly ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5-0.99u | 112/403 | 0.61u | -2.1% | 247.6u | -1.4u | -0.6% |
| 1.0-1.99u | 51/186 | 1.43u | -23.3% | 265.5u | -67.3u | -25.3% |
| 2.0u+ | 62/142 | 3.26u | +2.6% | 462.5u | +46.6u | +10.1% |
Reconciliation Runs
| Date | Matches | Accuracy | Log Loss | Brier | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | 36 | 44.4% | 1.053 | 0.637 | +3.5% |
| May 16, 2026 | 3 | 33.3% | 1.232 | 0.749 | +0.6% |
| May 15, 2026 | 4 | 50.0% | 0.889 | 0.515 | -11.5% |
| May 14, 2026 | 26 | 50.0% | 1.005 | 0.598 | -6.6% |
| May 13, 2026 | 9 | 33.3% | 1.118 | 0.681 | +6.6% |
| May 12, 2026 | 12 | 25.0% | 1.299 | 0.806 | +29.3% |
| May 11, 2026 | 41 | 43.9% | 1.061 | 0.634 | +9.6% |
| May 10, 2026 | 36 | 50.0% | 0.968 | 0.575 | -8.1% |
| May 9, 2026 | 6 | 66.7% | 0.917 | 0.534 | -15.0% |
| May 8, 2026 | 0 | - | - | - | - |
Recent Matches
Showing 30 of 100 matched results.