Model
What this is
Daily AI soccer predictions across six leagues. Calibrated probabilities, projected scorelines, player scorer picks, and value analysis against the market. Every prediction tracked and reconciled.
Leagues
Ensemble model
Three independent systems blended via walk-forward cross-validation:
Gradient Boosting Classifier
HistGradientBoosting on match-level features: team form, venue stats, H2H, injuries, style metrics.
Poisson Goal Model
Expected goals regression. Generates 1X2 via Poisson distribution, BTTS and O2.5 via Monte Carlo.
Elo Rating System
Chronological team ratings with home-field adjustment. Baseline probabilities calibrated on training set.
Features (50+)
- -Season and recent form (PPG, GD)
- -Home/away venue splits
- -Rest days and travel distance
- -Weather conditions
- -Head-to-head record
- -Player injuries (value-weighted)
- -Shot and possession stats
- -Match analogues
- -Coach stability and tenure
Value analysis
Model probabilities vs market odds (after vig removal). When our probability exceeds implied market probability, that outcome is flagged with edge % and EV. All value bets tracked with realized profit and CLV. See results.
Daily cycle
Pull fixtures, results, odds, injuries, stats
Generate 1X2 probabilities, goals, scorer picks
Score completed predictions, update calibration
Updated slate and performance metrics