Pipeline Status
Monitoring prediction generation, model training, and result reconciliation.
Live Daily Run
[May 31, 2026, 05:14:59] coaches synced: 910/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:02] coaches synced: 920/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:04] coaches synced: 930/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:06] coaches synced: 940/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:08] coaches synced: 950/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:10] coaches synced: 960/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:12] coaches synced: 970/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:14] coaches synced: 980/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:16] coaches synced: 990/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:18] coaches synced: 1000/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:20] coaches synced: 1010/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:22] coaches synced: 1016/1016 teams [May 31, 2026, 05:15:23] Syncing fixture statistics for 2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:15:23] statistics sync is using conservative pacing (workers=1, pause=0.2s) [May 31, 2026, 05:16:11] statistics synced: 100/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:16:59] statistics synced: 200/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:17:46] statistics synced: 300/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:18:35] statistics synced: 400/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:19:23] statistics synced: 500/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:20:12] statistics synced: 600/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:21:00] statistics synced: 700/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:21:48] statistics synced: 800/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:22:35] statistics synced: 900/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:23:25] statistics synced: 1000/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:24:13] statistics synced: 1100/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:25:00] statistics synced: 1200/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:25:49] statistics synced: 1300/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:26:37] statistics synced: 1400/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:27:27] statistics synced: 1500/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:28:14] statistics synced: 1600/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:29:04] statistics synced: 1700/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:29:52] statistics synced: 1800/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:30:43] statistics synced: 1900/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:31:32] statistics synced: 2000/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:32:20] statistics synced: 2100/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:33:08] statistics synced: 2200/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:33:57] statistics synced: 2300/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:34:46] statistics synced: 2400/2422 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:34:57] Syncing goal events for 51 fixtures [May 31, 2026, 05:35:30] Syncing lineups for 25914 fixtures
[May 31, 2026, 06:19:59] Run failed: Unsupported table for PostgreSQL writes: fixture_lineups
Prediction Batches
| Generated | Run | Predictions | Leagues | Kickoff Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026, 06:28(14d 19h ago) | f4dc2744 | 53 | 9 | May 17 – May 18 |
| May 16, 2026, 06:13(15d 19h ago) | d54ac7fa | 36 | 6 | May 16 – May 17 |
| May 15, 2026, 06:19(16d 19h ago) | e70890e1 | 3 | 3 | May 15 – May 15 |
| May 14, 2026, 06:16(17d 19h ago) | 8393a5fd | 4 | 2 | May 14 – May 15 |
| May 13, 2026, 06:12(18d 19h ago) | 6def33fa | 26 | 7 | May 13 – May 14 |
| May 12, 2026, 06:14(19d 19h ago) | 5e52e98a | 9 | 4 | May 12 – May 12 |
| May 11, 2026, 06:11(20d 19h ago) | 3930cc5d | 11 | 5 | May 11 – May 11 |
| May 10, 2026, 06:27(21d 19h ago) | 1f6b878e | 2 | 1 | May 9 – May 9 |
| May 10, 2026, 06:09(21d 19h ago) | e62d6896 | 41 | 10 | May 10 – May 11 |
| May 9, 2026, 06:10(22d 19h ago) | 6b0cc566 | 39 | 9 | May 9 – May 10 |
| May 8, 2026, 06:13(23d 19h ago) | 4be658b2 | 6 | 6 | May 8 – May 8 |
| May 6, 2026, 07:25(25d 18h ago) | 7a55b07d | 2 | 2 | May 6 – May 6 |
| May 5, 2026, 06:15(26d 19h ago) | 035aab6f | 3 | 3 | May 5 – May 5 |
| May 4, 2026, 06:12(27d 19h ago) | 3521cd86 | 7 | 5 | May 4 – May 4 |
| May 3, 2026, 06:12(28d 19h ago) | 04d37108 | 32 | 10 | May 3 – May 4 |
| May 2, 2026, 06:15(29d 19h ago) | 789627b4 | 61 | 11 | May 2 – May 3 |
| May 1, 2026, 06:16(30d 19h ago) | ec613cb5 | 5 | 5 | May 1 – May 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026, 17:07(32d 8h ago) | 0101d5f0 | 3 | 3 | Apr 29 – Apr 29 |
| Apr 29, 2026, 06:21(32d 19h ago) | 883f2ae3 | 3 | 3 | Apr 29 – Apr 29 |
| Apr 27, 2026, 07:32(34d 18h ago) | e1eb0e9a | 5 | 4 | Apr 27 – Apr 27 |
Model Training Runs
May 17, 2026, 06:28(14d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.2%ll 0.9843feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.860 |
| goal model | 0.140 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9750 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.014, home: 0.983 |
May 16, 2026, 06:13(15d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.0%ll 0.9850feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.660 |
| goal model | 0.340 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.021, home: 0.981 |
May 15, 2026, 06:19(16d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9850feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.760 |
| goal model | 0.240 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9750 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.021, home: 0.988 |
May 14, 2026, 06:16(17d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9850feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.800 |
| goal model | 0.200 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9750 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.014, home: 0.986 |
May 13, 2026, 06:12(18d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.0%ll 0.9845feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.660 |
| goal model | 0.340 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.017, home: 0.985 |
May 12, 2026, 06:14(19d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9853feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.700 |
| goal model | 0.300 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.011, home: 0.991 |
May 11, 2026, 06:11(20d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9845feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.780 |
| goal model | 0.220 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.016, home: 0.988 |
May 10, 2026, 06:27(21d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9840feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.840 |
| goal model | 0.160 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9250 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.009, home: 0.986 |
May 10, 2026, 06:09(21d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.3%ll 0.9827feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.680 |
| goal model | 0.320 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.018, home: 0.988 |
May 9, 2026, 06:10(22d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9838feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.840 |
| goal model | 0.160 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.009, home: 0.986 |
May 8, 2026, 06:13(23d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.2%ll 0.9838feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.740 |
| goal model | 0.260 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.010, home: 0.988 |
May 6, 2026, 07:25(25d 18h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9837feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.760 |
| goal model | 0.240 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.007, home: 0.990 |
May 5, 2026, 06:15(26d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.2%ll 0.9841feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.800 |
| goal model | 0.200 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.010, home: 0.989 |
May 4, 2026, 06:12(27d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.3%ll 0.9831feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.800 |
| goal model | 0.200 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.008, home: 0.990 |
May 3, 2026, 06:12(28d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.3%ll 0.9831feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.800 |
| goal model | 0.200 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.011, home: 0.986 |
May 2, 2026, 06:15(29d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.4%ll 0.9808feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.820 |
| goal model | 0.180 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.010, home: 0.982 |
May 1, 2026, 06:16(30d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.3%ll 0.9816feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.720 |
| goal model | 0.280 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.009, home: 0.982 |
Apr 29, 2026, 17:07(32d 8h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.5%ll 0.9807feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.680 |
| goal model | 0.320 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.005, home: 0.985 |
Apr 29, 2026, 06:21(32d 19h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.5%ll 0.9807feat 240
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.680 |
| goal model | 0.320 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9500 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 1.005, home: 0.985 |
Apr 27, 2026, 07:32(34d 18h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.3%ll 0.9817feat 409
Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.
| classifier | 0.580 |
| goal model | 0.420 |
| elo | 0.000 |
| class bias | [object Object] |
| probability temperature | 0.9250 |
| elo home advantage | 40.0000 |
| goal scales | away: 0.998, home: 0.982 |
Reconciliation Runs
| Date | Resolved | Accuracy | Log Loss | Brier | ROI (All) | ROI (Rec) | +CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026, 06:23(14d 19h ago) | 36 | 44.4% | 1.053 | 0.637 | +3.5% | -11.6% | 50.0% |
| May 16, 2026, 06:09(15d 19h ago) | 3 | 33.3% | 1.232 | 0.749 | +0.6% | -36.7% | 0.0% |
| May 15, 2026, 06:15(16d 19h ago) | 4 | 50.0% | 0.889 | 0.515 | -11.5% | +47.0% | 25.0% |
| May 14, 2026, 06:12(17d 19h ago) | 26 | 50.0% | 1.005 | 0.598 | -6.6% | -1.1% | 60.0% |
| May 13, 2026, 06:08(18d 19h ago) | 9 | 33.3% | 1.118 | 0.681 | +6.6% | +57.0% | 44.4% |
| May 12, 2026, 06:10(19d 19h ago) | 12 | 25.0% | 1.299 | 0.806 | +29.3% | -3.6% | 45.5% |
| May 11, 2026, 06:07(20d 19h ago) | 41 | 43.9% | 1.061 | 0.634 | +9.6% | +18.0% | 63.4% |
| May 10, 2026, 06:06(21d 19h ago) | 36 | 50.0% | 0.968 | 0.575 | -8.1% | -28.5% | 47.2% |
| May 9, 2026, 06:07(22d 19h ago) | 6 | 66.7% | 0.917 | 0.534 | -15.0% | +13.3% | 33.3% |
| May 8, 2026, 06:09(23d 19h ago) | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| May 7, 2026, 06:10(24d 19h ago) | 2 | 50.0% | 1.271 | 0.798 | +26.8% | -100.0% | 0.0% |
| May 6, 2026, 06:40(25d 19h ago) | 3 | 66.7% | 0.853 | 0.494 | -26.6% | -100.0% | 66.7% |
| May 5, 2026, 06:09(26d 19h ago) | 7 | 57.1% | 1.009 | 0.607 | -0.2% | -44.6% | 57.1% |
| May 4, 2026, 06:06(27d 19h ago) | 33 | 45.5% | 1.076 | 0.651 | +2.6% | -9.9% | 37.9% |
| May 3, 2026, 06:08(28d 19h ago) | 60 | 43.3% | 1.112 | 0.674 | +11.1% | +15.4% | 41.4% |
| May 2, 2026, 06:11(29d 19h ago) | 5 | 40.0% | 1.019 | 0.611 | +0.9% | +48.6% | 20.0% |
| May 1, 2026, 06:13(30d 19h ago) | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 30, 2026, 06:11(31d 19h ago) | 6 | 0.0% | 1.494 | 0.989 | +92.2% | +280.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr 29, 2026, 06:18(32d 19h ago) | 5 | 40.0% | 1.084 | 0.651 | +1.0% | -100.0% | 60.0% |
| Apr 27, 2026, 07:28(34d 18h ago) | 30 | 46.7% | 1.035 | 0.627 | +13.9% | +35.9% | 56.7% |