Pipeline Status

Monitoring prediction generation, model training, and result reconciliation.

Model dashboard →

Predictions

Pipeline running normally

Last batch: 16h 13m ago

Reconciliation

Pipeline running normally

Last run: 15h 59m ago

Live Daily Run

Scheduler

Last daily job completed

Run 20260801T050005

Started

Aug 1, 2026, 05:00:06

18h 57m ago

Updated

Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:17

17h 54m ago

Latest Phase

Daily cycle completed.

Stdout Tail

[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Score model: 1.81-1.22 goals, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 65%, most likely 1-1
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Provider Portland Timbers (H 45% / D 45% / A 10%)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Best value: Away (edge +1.3%, EV +0.02, 0.5u)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Drivers: away travel burden higher (+233 km); away altitude adjustment is tougher (+44 m); home shot volume edge (+10.40)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Home scorers: F. Mora 31% (midfielder, opp 33%), C. Bassett 14% (midfielder, opp 33%), Antony 13% (midfielder, opp 33%)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Away scorers: J. Ferreira 17% (midfielder, opp 48%), A. Rusnák 14% (midfielder, opp 48%), D. Musovski 12% (forward, opp 43%)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] 21:05  [Liga MX] Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC  -> Home (H 71% / D 18% / A 11%)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Score model: 2.39-0.85 goals, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 62%, most likely 2-0
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:02] - Provider Cruz Azul (H 45% / D 45% / A 10%)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:03] - Best value: Away (edge +0.7%, EV +0.06, 0.5u)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:03] - Drivers: home shot volume edge (+13.34); home season form edge (+2.50 PPG); home recent xG balance edge (+2.06)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:03] - Home scorers: G. Fernández 27% (forward, opp 64%), J. Márquez 20% (defender, opp 7%), A. Palavecino 19% (midfielder, opp 21%)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:03] - Away scorers: J. Julio 10% (forward, opp 30%), E. Pizzuto 9% (midfielder, opp 30%), L. Puente 4% (forward, opp 30%)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:03] Daily report written to reports/daily/2026-08-01.md
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:00:03] [2026-08-01T06:00:03.413274+00:00] Generating predictions for 2026-07-31.
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] [2026-08-01T06:03:15.366302+00:00] Generated predictions for 0 fixtures and 0 scorer rows. (192.0s)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] [2026-08-01T06:03:15.441703+00:00] Rendering markdown prediction report for 2026-07-31.
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] [2026-08-01T06:03:15.516747+00:00] Markdown prediction report rendered. (0.1s)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] [2026-08-01T06:03:15.597885+00:00] Writing daily report to reports/daily/2026-07-31.md.
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] [2026-08-01T06:03:15.673429+00:00] Daily report written. (0.1s)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] No upcoming fixtures found for 2026-07-31 in America/Denver.
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] Daily report written to reports/daily/2026-07-31.md
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] Sync complete: fixture_rows=10075, statistics_rows=1004, goal_event_rows=97, player_rows=18342, weather_rows=981624, injury_rows=33264, odds_rows=351060, provider_prediction_rows=25, news_articles_rows=32
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:15] Reconciliation
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Resolved predictions: 7
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Current batch: accuracy 0.000, log loss 1.387, Brier 0.887, RPS 0.164
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Current market baseline: log loss 1.401, Brier 0.903
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Goal markets: BTTS log loss 0.668, Brier 0.238; Over 2.5 log loss 0.806, Brier 0.306
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Recommended bets settled: 7, ROI +1.200, positive CLV 71%
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Units wagered: 6.0, net P/L: +2.27u, unit ROI: +38.0%
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Confidence tier breakdown:
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Very High: 2 preds, accuracy 0.000, 2 bets, win 0%, flat ROI -1.000, 3.3u wagered, -3.31u P/L
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] High: 2 preds, accuracy 0.000, 2 bets, win 100%, flat ROI +3.100, 1.0u wagered, +3.10u P/L
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Medium: 1 preds, accuracy 0.000, 3 bets, win 67%, flat ROI +1.400, 1.6u wagered, +2.48u P/L
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Low: 2 preds, accuracy 0.000, 3 bets, win 67%, flat ROI +1.400, 1.6u wagered, +2.48u P/L
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Lifetime resolved predictions: 1066, accuracy 0.497, log loss 1.018
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:16] Lifetime goal markets: BTTS log loss 0.677; Over 2.5 log loss 0.678
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:17] [2026-08-01T06:03:17.011859+00:00] Sending daily email notification.
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:17] [2026-08-01T06:03:17.575902+00:00] Daily email sent via Resend: 9d3a9fbb-9a8e-4677-9924-4ef9c1247fcd (0.6s)
[Aug 1, 2026, 06:03:17] Daily run used PostgreSQL (MLS_POSTGRES_URL)

Stderr Tail

No stderr events captured.

Prediction Batches

Generated	Run	Predictions	Leagues	Kickoff Window
Aug 1, 2026, 07:43(16h 13m ago)	1ac52929	20	3(Liga MX, Major League Soccer, Premier...)	Aug 1 – Aug 2
Aug 1, 2026, 06:41(17h 15m ago)	b005451f	20	3(Liga MX, Major League Soccer, Premier...)	Aug 1 – Aug 2
Aug 1, 2026, 05:51(18h 6m ago)	e363c5ab	20	3(Liga MX, Major League Soccer, Premier...)	Aug 1 – Aug 2
Aug 1, 2026, 02:39(21h 18m ago)	25ae1f91	2	1(Liga MX)	Aug 1 – Aug 1
Aug 1, 2026, 02:26(21h 30m ago)	cf02a74e	20	3(Liga MX, Major League Soccer, Premier...)	Aug 1 – Aug 2
Jul 30, 2026, 03:16(2d 20h ago)	00e1976f	5	3(Liga MX, Major League Soccer, Premier...)	Jul 31 – Aug 1
Jul 30, 2026, 03:10(2d 20h ago)	78ec572e	5	3(Liga MX, Major League Soccer, Premier...)	Jul 31 – Aug 1
Jul 6, 2026, 21:36(26d 2h ago)	9ecfb4ec	1	1(World Cup)	Jul 7 – Jul 7
Jul 6, 2026, 18:31(26d 5h ago)	f79398af	2	1(World Cup)	Jul 6 – Jul 7
Jul 6, 2026, 16:04(26d 7h ago)	fcae1b32	12	2(UEFA Champions League, World Cup)	Jul 7 – Jul 7
Jul 6, 2026, 15:58(26d 7h ago)	e70a74bb	2	1(World Cup)	Jul 6 – Jul 7
May 17, 2026, 06:28(76d 17h ago)	f4dc2744	53	9(Eredivisie, Friendlies, La Liga, Liga...)	May 17 – May 18
May 16, 2026, 06:13(77d 17h ago)	d54ac7fa	36	6(Bundesliga, Friendlies, Liga MX, Majo...)	May 16 – May 17
May 15, 2026, 06:19(78d 17h ago)	e70890e1	3	3(Ligue 1, Premier League, Premiership)	May 15 – May 15
May 14, 2026, 06:16(79d 17h ago)	8393a5fd	4	2(La Liga, Liga MX)	May 14 – May 15
May 13, 2026, 06:12(80d 17h ago)	6def33fa	26	7(Friendlies, La Liga, Liga MX, Ligue 1...)	May 13 – May 14
May 12, 2026, 06:14(81d 17h ago)	5e52e98a	9	4(Championship, La Liga, Ligue 1, Premi...)	May 12 – May 12
May 11, 2026, 06:11(82d 17h ago)	3930cc5d	11	5(Championship, La Liga, Premier League...)	May 11 – May 11
May 10, 2026, 06:27(83d 17h ago)	1f6b878e	2	1(Eredivisie)	May 9 – May 9
May 10, 2026, 06:09(83d 17h ago)	e62d6896	41	10(Bundesliga, Eredivisie, La Liga, Liga...)	May 10 – May 11

Model Training Runs

Aug 1, 2026, 07:43(16h 13m ago)2026-08-01-7f59036eacc 53.5%ll 0.9805feat 221

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,355

Holdout

5,671

Accuracy

53.5%

Log Loss

0.9805

Brier

0.5836

RPS

0.1997

Value Bets

3172

Value ROI

-1.1%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,588

Market Log Loss

0.9876

Market Brier

0.5900

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.780
goal model	0.220
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.028, home: 0.990

Run 1ac52929-9d6e-4195-81c9-037ec03f267e

Aug 1, 2026, 06:41(17h 15m ago)2026-08-01-7f59036eacc 53.5%ll 0.9805feat 221

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,355

Holdout

5,671

Accuracy

53.5%

Log Loss

0.9805

Brier

0.5836

RPS

0.1997

Value Bets

3172

Value ROI

-1.1%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,588

Market Log Loss

0.9876

Market Brier

0.5900

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.780
goal model	0.220
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.028, home: 0.990

Run b005451f-5f1f-4b11-99e8-e214928c4cb2

Aug 1, 2026, 05:51(18h 6m ago)2026-08-01-072e5875acc 53.5%ll 0.9805feat 221

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,355

Holdout

5,671

Accuracy

53.5%

Log Loss

0.9805

Brier

0.5836

RPS

0.1997

Value Bets

3172

Value ROI

-1.1%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,588

Market Log Loss

0.9876

Market Brier

0.5900

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.780
goal model	0.220
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.028, home: 0.990

Run e363c5ab-e568-4c01-bf7f-c8a0efb6d0be

Aug 1, 2026, 02:39(21h 18m ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.9%ll 0.9798feat 221

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,351

Holdout

5,670

Accuracy

53.9%

Log Loss

0.9798

Brier

0.5831

RPS

0.1995

Value Bets

3262

Value ROI

-3.0%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,585

Market Log Loss

0.9869

Market Brier

0.5894

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.780
goal model	0.220
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.029, home: 0.990

Run 25ae1f91-66a4-43b6-91e0-50f395b6839d

Aug 1, 2026, 02:26(21h 30m ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.5%ll 0.9803feat 221

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,352

Holdout

5,670

Accuracy

53.5%

Log Loss

0.9803

Brier

0.5836

RPS

0.1998

Value Bets

3202

Value ROI

2.8%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,586

Market Log Loss

0.9870

Market Brier

0.5895

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.800
goal model	0.200
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9750
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.031, home: 0.989

Run cf02a74e-bbe1-4eef-8af3-ead4a2cb2ac0

Jul 30, 2026, 03:16(2d 20h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.7%ll 0.9805feat 222

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,351

Holdout

5,670

Accuracy

53.7%

Log Loss

0.9805

Brier

0.5836

RPS

0.1998

Value Bets

3215

Value ROI

-1.5%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,585

Market Log Loss

0.9869

Market Brier

0.5894

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.720
goal model	0.280
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.029, home: 0.990

Run 00e1976f-e911-4af9-b709-e96b96ea934f

Jul 30, 2026, 03:10(2d 20h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.7%ll 0.9813feat 222

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,351

Holdout

5,670

Accuracy

53.7%

Log Loss

0.9813

Brier

0.5841

RPS

0.2001

Value Bets

3149

Value ROI

-5.2%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,585

Market Log Loss

0.9869

Market Brier

0.5894

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.700
goal model	0.300
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.029, home: 0.990

Run 78ec572e-7012-4cba-98c5-93e9cc2d1328

Jul 6, 2026, 21:36(26d 2h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.5%ll 0.9820feat 222

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,195

Holdout

5,639

Accuracy

53.5%

Log Loss

0.9820

Brier

0.5844

RPS

0.2000

Value Bets

3164

Value ROI

-3.6%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,574

Market Log Loss

0.9876

Market Brier

0.5897

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.680
goal model	0.320
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9750
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.025, home: 0.986

Run 9ecfb4ec-c6a3-4346-9136-e830f4d83cd7

Jul 6, 2026, 18:31(26d 5h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.7%ll 0.9818feat 222

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,195

Holdout

5,639

Accuracy

53.7%

Log Loss

0.9818

Brier

0.5843

RPS

0.1999

Value Bets

3153

Value ROI

-4.9%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,574

Market Log Loss

0.9876

Market Brier

0.5897

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.740
goal model	0.260
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.023, home: 0.986

Run f79398af-3b52-49bd-b758-9d0c4abc91f4

Jul 6, 2026, 16:04(26d 7h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.5%ll 0.9824feat 222

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,195

Holdout

5,639

Accuracy

53.5%

Log Loss

0.9824

Brier

0.5848

RPS

0.2002

Value Bets

3146

Value ROI

-3.2%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,555

Market Log Loss

0.9891

Market Brier

0.5908

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.760
goal model	0.240
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.023, home: 0.986

Run fcae1b32-5f1a-4c0f-85d4-f02989d2c62b

Jul 6, 2026, 15:58(26d 7h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.5%ll 0.9824feat 222

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

28,195

Holdout

5,639

Accuracy

53.5%

Log Loss

0.9824

Brier

0.5848

RPS

0.2002

Value Bets

3146

Value ROI

-3.2%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,555

Market Log Loss

0.9891

Market Brier

0.5908

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.760
goal model	0.240
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.023, home: 0.986

Run e70a74bb-b830-4655-b493-779da82db8a2

May 17, 2026, 06:28(76d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.2%ll 0.9843feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,751

Holdout

5,550

Accuracy

53.2%

Log Loss

0.9843

Brier

0.5863

RPS

0.2013

Value Bets

3150

Value ROI

-3.5%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,578

Market Log Loss

0.9916

Market Brier

0.5924

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.860
goal model	0.140
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9750
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.014, home: 0.983

Run f4dc2744-3fba-438c-85f9-075ac67277c5

May 16, 2026, 06:13(77d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.0%ll 0.9850feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,710

Holdout

5,542

Accuracy

53.0%

Log Loss

0.9850

Brier

0.5866

RPS

0.2014

Value Bets

3105

Value ROI

-2.7%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,573

Market Log Loss

0.9918

Market Brier

0.5926

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.660
goal model	0.340
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.021, home: 0.981

Run d54ac7fa-cdb8-4f63-a3cb-a58b22a57d34

May 15, 2026, 06:19(78d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9850feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,707

Holdout

5,541

Accuracy

53.1%

Log Loss

0.9850

Brier

0.5865

RPS

0.2015

Value Bets

3121

Value ROI

-2.7%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,572

Market Log Loss

0.9913

Market Brier

0.5923

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.760
goal model	0.240
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9750
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.021, home: 0.988

Run e70890e1-94ac-4f25-9cce-d6dda98cd846

May 14, 2026, 06:16(79d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9850feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,703

Holdout

5,540

Accuracy

53.1%

Log Loss

0.9850

Brier

0.5867

RPS

0.2014

Value Bets

3112

Value ROI

-4.8%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,571

Market Log Loss

0.9914

Market Brier

0.5923

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.800
goal model	0.200
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9750
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.014, home: 0.986

Run 8393a5fd-b858-4b2e-a804-c1a2f5f8a73f

May 13, 2026, 06:12(80d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.0%ll 0.9845feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,673

Holdout

5,534

Accuracy

53.0%

Log Loss

0.9845

Brier

0.5864

RPS

0.2012

Value Bets

3058

Value ROI

-4.4%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,562

Market Log Loss

0.9912

Market Brier

0.5922

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.660
goal model	0.340
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.017, home: 0.985

Run 6def33fa-d488-4b42-8aab-f675bf98b9be

May 12, 2026, 06:14(81d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9853feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,664

Holdout

5,532

Accuracy

53.1%

Log Loss

0.9853

Brier

0.5869

RPS

0.2014

Value Bets

3046

Value ROI

-5.1%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,558

Market Log Loss

0.9909

Market Brier

0.5920

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.700
goal model	0.300
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.011, home: 0.991

Run 5e52e98a-a07b-4146-a488-7fb7eb03824b

May 11, 2026, 06:11(82d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9845feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,652

Holdout

5,530

Accuracy

53.1%

Log Loss

0.9845

Brier

0.5863

RPS

0.2009

Value Bets

3120

Value ROI

-7.8%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,555

Market Log Loss

0.9901

Market Brier

0.5914

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.780
goal model	0.220
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.016, home: 0.988

Run 3930cc5d-3e04-42e1-81aa-7650622f316a

May 10, 2026, 06:27(83d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.1%ll 0.9840feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,575

Holdout

5,515

Accuracy

53.1%

Log Loss

0.9840

Brier

0.5860

RPS

0.2007

Value Bets

3134

Value ROI

-3.7%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,524

Market Log Loss

0.9894

Market Brier

0.5910

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.840
goal model	0.160
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9250
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.009, home: 0.986

Run 1f6b878e-31e1-4108-a5d4-55d66b7f30b8

May 10, 2026, 06:09(83d 17h ago)2026-04-17-411267e5acc 53.3%ll 0.9827feat 240

Probabilities are an ensemble of a learned rating prior, a score-distribution goal model, and a calibrated gradient boosting classifier.

Holdout Metrics

Training

27,611

Holdout

5,522

Accuracy

53.3%

Log Loss

0.9827

Brier

0.5853

RPS

0.2005

Value Bets

3097

Value ROI

-3.0%

vs Market (Bookmaker Odds)

Market Holdout

3,535

Market Log Loss

0.9882

Market Brier

0.5902

Ensemble Weights

classifier	0.680
goal model	0.320
elo	0.000

Model Parameters

class bias	[object Object]
probability temperature	0.9500
elo home advantage	40.0000
goal scales	away: 1.018, home: 0.988

Run e62d6896-48cb-46e5-bb56-01003747a545

Reconciliation Runs

Date	Resolved	Accuracy	Log Loss	Brier	ROI (All)	ROI (Rec)	+CLV
Aug 1, 2026, 07:58(15h 59m ago)	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
Aug 1, 2026, 07:54(16h 3m ago)	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
Aug 1, 2026, 05:47(18h 9m ago)	7	0.0%	1.387	0.887	+29.1%	+120.0%	71.4%
Aug 1, 2026, 02:21(21h 36m ago)	2	0.0%	1.366	0.899	+56.7%	+370.0%	100.0%
Jul 30, 2026, 02:55(2d 21h ago)	15	66.7%	0.863	0.499	-0.3%	+199.0%	0.0%
Jul 6, 2026, 21:31(26d 2h ago)	2	100.0%	0.898	0.531	-32.7%	-100.0%	0.0%
Jul 6, 2026, 18:26(26d 5h ago)	52	51.9%	1.077	0.644	+7.3%	-2.0%	0.0%
May 17, 2026, 06:23(76d 17h ago)	36	44.4%	1.053	0.637	+3.5%	-11.6%	50.0%
May 16, 2026, 06:09(77d 17h ago)	3	33.3%	1.232	0.749	+0.6%	-36.7%	0.0%
May 15, 2026, 06:15(78d 17h ago)	4	50.0%	0.889	0.515	-11.5%	+47.0%	25.0%
May 14, 2026, 06:12(79d 17h ago)	26	50.0%	1.005	0.598	-6.6%	-1.1%	60.0%
May 13, 2026, 06:08(80d 17h ago)	9	33.3%	1.118	0.681	+6.6%	+57.0%	44.4%
May 12, 2026, 06:10(81d 17h ago)	12	25.0%	1.299	0.806	+29.3%	-3.6%	45.5%
May 11, 2026, 06:07(82d 17h ago)	41	43.9%	1.061	0.634	+9.6%	+18.0%	63.4%
May 10, 2026, 06:06(83d 17h ago)	36	50.0%	0.968	0.575	-8.1%	-28.5%	47.2%
May 9, 2026, 06:07(84d 17h ago)	6	66.7%	0.917	0.534	-15.0%	+13.3%	33.3%
May 8, 2026, 06:09(85d 17h ago)	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
May 7, 2026, 06:10(86d 17h ago)	2	50.0%	1.271	0.798	+26.8%	-100.0%	0.0%
May 6, 2026, 06:40(87d 17h ago)	3	66.7%	0.853	0.494	-26.6%	-100.0%	66.7%
May 5, 2026, 06:09(88d 17h ago)	7	57.1%	1.009	0.607	-0.2%	-44.6%	57.1%

Data refreshes every 2 minutes.

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