Model Dashboard
Model 2026-08-01-7f59036e · trained Aug 1, 2026 · 221 features · 28,355 training matches
Model Predictions
Predictions
855
resolved
Accuracy
49.0%
1X2 hit rate
Log Loss
1.027
lower is better
Value Bets
Hit Rate
259/814
value bets won
Flat ROI
-3.7%
return on value bets
Calibration & Performance
Calibration curve (predicted vs actual)
Dot size = sample count. Dashed = perfect calibration.
Rolling accuracy (per reconciliation run)
Each point = one batch of resolved predictions. Dashed = average.
Value bet ROI (per run)
Flat-stake ROI on value-flagged predictions per run.
Training Snapshot
| Training matches | 28,355 |
| Holdout matches | 5,671 |
| Holdout accuracy | 53.5% |
| Holdout log loss | 0.9805 |
| Features | 221 |
Accuracy by League
| League | Picks | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 130 | 58 | 44.6% |
| La Liga | 79 | 37 | 46.8% |
| Championship | 77 | 36 | 46.8% |
| Serie A | 70 | 41 | 58.6% |
| Ligue 1 | 64 | 28 | 43.8% |
| Bundesliga | 63 | 29 | 46.0% |
| Primeira Liga | 62 | 30 | 48.4% |
| Liga MX | 60 | 25 | 41.7% |
| Eredivisie | 59 | 31 | 52.5% |
| Premier League | 58 | 29 | 50.0% |
| Friendlies | 55 | 28 | 50.9% |
| Premiership | 47 | 27 | 57.4% |
| UEFA Champions League | 21 | 13 | 61.9% |
| World Cup | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| UEFA Nations League | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Confidence Tier Breakdown
| Predictions | Value Bets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier | Picks | Accuracy | Hit Rate | Flat ROI | Units | P/L | Unit ROI |
| VH | 208 | 63.5% | 71/202 | -6.3% | 348.0u | -20.3u | -5.8% |
| H | 223 | 47.5% | 73/216 | +9.0% | 274.5u | +55.2u | 20.1% |
| M | 303 | 45.2% | 85/282 | -7.7% | 327.1u | -5.3u | -1.6% |
| L | 121 | 36.4% | 30/114 | -13.2% | 104.5u | -29.5u | -28.3% |