Model Dashboard
Model 2026-03-26-4c76e3b0 · trained Mar 29, 2026 · 244 features · 26,919 training matches
Predictions
12
resolved
Accuracy
41.7%
1X2 hit rate
Log Loss
1.077
lower is better
Value ROI
-100.0%
0/1 value bets
Calibration & Performance
Calibration curve (predicted vs actual)
Dot size = sample count. Dashed = perfect calibration.
Rolling accuracy (per reconciliation run)
Need 2+ reconciliation runs
Each point = one batch of resolved predictions. Dashed = average.
Value bet ROI (per run)
Not enough data yet
Flat-stake ROI on value-flagged predictions per run.
Training Snapshot
| Training matches | 26,919 |
| Holdout matches | 5,383 |
| Holdout accuracy | 53.9% |
| Holdout log loss | 0.9787 |
| Features | 244 |
Accuracy by League
| League | Picks | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friendlies | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
Confidence Tier Breakdown
| Tier | Picks | Accuracy | Value W/T | Flat ROI | Units | P/L | Unit ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VH | 3 | 66.7% | 0/0 | - | 0.0u | +0.0u | - |
| H | 3 | 33.3% | 0/0 | - | 0.0u | +0.0u | - |
| M | 3 | 33.3% | 0/0 | - | 0.0u | +0.0u | - |
| L | 3 | 33.3% | 0/1 | -100.0% | 3.3u | -3.3u | -100.0% |