Model Dashboard
Model 2026-04-17-411267e5 · trained May 17, 2026 · 240 features · 27,751 training matches
Model Predictions
Predictions
785
resolved
Accuracy
48.7%
1X2 hit rate
Log Loss
1.024
lower is better
Value Bets
Hit Rate
236/762
value bets won
Flat ROI
-6.2%
return on value bets
Calibration & Performance
Calibration curve (predicted vs actual)
Dot size = sample count. Dashed = perfect calibration.
Rolling accuracy (per reconciliation run)
Each point = one batch of resolved predictions. Dashed = average.
Value bet ROI (per run)
Flat-stake ROI on value-flagged predictions per run.
Training Snapshot
| Training matches | 27,751 |
| Holdout matches | 5,550 |
| Holdout accuracy | 53.2% |
| Holdout log loss | 0.9843 |
| Features | 240 |
Accuracy by League
| League | Picks | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 127 | 56 | 44.1% |
| Championship | 77 | 36 | 46.8% |
| La Liga | 69 | 30 | 43.5% |
| Bundesliga | 63 | 29 | 46.0% |
| Primeira Liga | 62 | 30 | 48.4% |
| Serie A | 60 | 35 | 58.3% |
| Liga MX | 57 | 23 | 40.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 56 | 27 | 48.2% |
| Premier League | 52 | 27 | 51.9% |
| Friendlies | 52 | 27 | 51.9% |
| Eredivisie | 50 | 26 | 52.0% |
| Premiership | 43 | 25 | 58.1% |
| UEFA Champions League | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| UEFA Nations League | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Confidence Tier Breakdown
| Predictions | Value Bets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier | Picks | Accuracy | Hit Rate | Flat ROI | Units | P/L | Unit ROI |
| VH | 186 | 64.5% | 66/182 | -1.5% | 309.1u | -19.5u | -6.3% |
| H | 208 | 47.6% | 64/203 | -4.4% | 251.5u | -5.8u | -2.3% |
| M | 279 | 44.1% | 81/269 | -4.0% | 311.5u | +44.7u | 14.3% |
| L | 112 | 35.7% | 25/108 | -23.0% | 103.4u | -41.5u | -40.2% |