Liga MXSat, May 16 at 7:07 PM
Full timePrediction missedValue bet lost
Guadalajara Chivas
1-2
Cruz Azul
50%
our prediction
26%
DRAW24%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-1)— actual: Away
+8% edgeM · Medium
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome50%
|H 50%D 26%A 24%
|xG 1.7-1.3
|+7.6%on Home
home shot volume edge (+7.40); historical analogs lean away (+0.03); away Elo edge (+59)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.7
GOALS (A)
1.3
OVER 2.5
57%
BTTS
59%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
11/3/3RECORD (W/D/L)9/6/2
65%WIN RATE53%
33GOALS SCORED31
17GOALS CONCEDED18
2.04AVG XG (HOME)2.16
1.43AVG XG (AWAY)1.50
56%BTTS RATE54%
30%MODEL ACCURACY30%
3/9VALUE BETS3/9
-7.60uVALUE UNIT P&L-7.22u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Guadalajara Chivas
1W 2D 2L
Cruz Azul
2W 2D 1L
HEAD TO HEAD
| Guadalajara ChivasvsCruz Azul | 1-2 |
| Cruz AzulvsGuadalajara Chivas | 2-2 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+7.6%
Kelly Units
2.81
ANALYSIS
home shot volume edge (+7.40); historical analogs lean away (+0.03); away Elo edge (+59)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
CF Pachuca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
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Partick vs Dunfermline
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Southampton vs Middlesbrough
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47%23% D30%
Middlesbrough vs Southampton
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45%29% D27%