Primeira LigaSat, May 16 at 1:30 PM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet lost
Sporting CP
3-0
GIL Vicente
76%
our prediction
15%
DRAW
9%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(2-0)correct
+3% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday read
PickHome76%
|
H 76%D 15%A 9%
|
xG 2.6-1.0
|
+2.6%on Away

home Elo edge (+228); away travel burden higher (+8126 km); home recent xG balance edge (+1.34)

First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.

GOALS (H)
2.6
GOALS (A)
1.0
OVER 2.5
69%
BTTS
58%
RADAR COMPARISON
WIN RATE63%38%XG2.01.5BTTS55%53%ACCURACY50%29%VALUE WIN%22%33%VALUE ROI+3.97u+3.99uSporting CPGIL Vicente
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
5/1/2RECORD (W/D/L)13/11/10
63%WIN RATE38%
17GOALS SCORED47
11GOALS CONCEDED38
2.16AVG XG (HOME)1.66
1.76AVG XG (AWAY)1.41
55%BTTS RATE53%
50%MODEL ACCURACY29%
2/9VALUE BETS2/6
+3.97uVALUE UNIT P&L+3.99u

No fixture news yet.

RECENT FORM
Sporting CP
1W 2D 2L
GIL Vicente
2W 1D 2L
HEAD TO HEAD
Sporting CPvsGIL Vicente3-0
VALUE BET
Outcome
Away
Edge
+2.6%
Kelly Units
0.70
ANALYSIS

home Elo edge (+228); away travel burden higher (+8126 km); home recent xG balance edge (+1.34)

SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
Liga MX · May 2026
1-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch
Eredivisie · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Spain U17 vs Ukraine U17
Friendlies · Apr 2026
4-0
Home Win
83%11% D6%
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Premiership · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
74%16% D9%
Celtic vs Falkirk
Premiership · Apr 2026
3-1
Home Win
69%18% D13%