Primeira LigaSat, May 16 at 11:00 AM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Nacional
2-0
Guimaraes
51%
our prediction
24%
DRAW26%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(2-1)— correct
+3% edgeH · High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome51%
|H 51%D 24%A 26%
|xG 1.8-1.3
|+2.8%on Home
away Elo edge (+74); historical analogs lean away (+0.00); away continuity edge (+0.16)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.8
GOALS (A)
1.3
OVER 2.5
61%
BTTS
61%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
9/7/18RECORD (W/D/L)12/6/16
26%WIN RATE35%
37GOALS SCORED39
45GOALS CONCEDED51
1.68AVG XG (HOME)1.63
1.10AVG XG (AWAY)1.36
55%BTTS RATE53%
88%MODEL ACCURACY43%
1/7VALUE BETS3/6
-4.68uVALUE UNIT P&L+2.59u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Nacional
2W 0D 3L
Guimaraes
2W 0D 3L
HEAD TO HEAD
| NacionalvsGuimaraes | 2-0 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+2.8%
Kelly Units
1.24
ANALYSIS
away Elo edge (+74); historical analogs lean away (+0.00); away continuity edge (+0.16)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
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