Primeira LigaSat, May 16 at 8:30 AM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
FC Porto
1-0
Santa Clara
74%
our prediction
18%
DRAW9%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(2-0)— correct
+2% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome74%
|H 74%D 18%A 9%
|xG 2.6-0.9
|+2.1%on Home
home Elo edge (+249); home season form edge (+1.48 PPG); historical analogs lean home (+0.55)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
2.6
GOALS (A)
0.9
OVER 2.5
68%
BTTS
54%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
28/4/2RECORD (W/D/L)9/9/16
82%WIN RATE26%
66GOALS SCORED32
18GOALS CONCEDED41
2.46AVG XG (HOME)1.33
2.05AVG XG (AWAY)1.12
54%BTTS RATE51%
75%MODEL ACCURACY29%
3/7VALUE BETS3/6
+11.62uVALUE UNIT P&L+5.73u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
FC Porto
1W 0D 4L
Santa Clara
0W 2D 3L
HEAD TO HEAD
| FC PortovsSanta Clara | 1-0 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+2.1%
Kelly Units
1.32
ANALYSIS
home Elo edge (+249); home season form edge (+1.48 PPG); historical analogs lean home (+0.55)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
Liga MX · May 2026
1-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch
Eredivisie · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Premiership · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
74%16% D9%
Celtic vs Falkirk
Premiership · Apr 2026
3-1
Home Win
69%18% D13%
Burkina Faso vs Guinea-Bissau
Friendlies · Mar 2026
5-0
Home Win
68%21% D11%