Primeira LigaSat, May 16 at 1:30 PM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Famalicao
1-0
Alverca
66%
our prediction
20%
DRAW14%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(2-0)— correct
+4% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome66%
|H 66%D 20%A 14%
|xG 2.3-0.9
|+4.3%on Home
home continuity edge (+0.66); home shot volume edge (+9.00); home Elo edge (+94)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
2.3
GOALS (A)
0.9
OVER 2.5
60%
BTTS
52%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
0/0/0RECORD (W/D/L)0/0/0
-WIN RATE-
0GOALS SCORED0
0GOALS CONCEDED0
1.75AVG XG (HOME)1.38
1.29AVG XG (AWAY)1.03
53%BTTS RATE50%
29%MODEL ACCURACY75%
4/7VALUE BETS3/7
+2.91uVALUE UNIT P&L+1.62u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Famalicao
1W 3D 1L
Alverca
0W 1D 4L
HEAD TO HEAD
| FamalicaovsAlverca | 1-0 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+4.3%
Kelly Units
3.51
ANALYSIS
home continuity edge (+0.66); home shot volume edge (+9.00); home Elo edge (+94)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Argentina vs Egypt
World Cup · Jul 2026
3-2
Home Win
70%21% D10%
Egypt U19 vs Oman U19
Friendlies · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
58%23% D18%
Kyrgyz Republic U20 vs Afghanistan U20
Friendlies · May 2026
0-0
Draw
68%19% D14%
Saint Etienne vs Rodez
Ligue 1 · May 2026
0-0
Draw
65%15% D20%
Millwall vs Hull City
Championship · May 2026
0-2
Away Win
65%16% D19%