Primeira LigaSat, May 16 at 1:30 PM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet lost
Estoril
1-3
Benfica
20%
our prediction
17%
DRAW63%
our prediction
PREDICTIONAway(1-1)— correct
+9% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickAway63%
|H 20%D 17%A 63%
|xG 1.3-2.1
|+9.4%on Home
away recent xG balance edge (+2.21); away Elo edge (+228); away travel burden higher (+7937 km)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.3
GOALS (A)
2.1
OVER 2.5
64%
BTTS
63%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
10/9/15RECORD (W/D/L)3/0/5
29%WIN RATE38%
54GOALS SCORED10
57GOALS CONCEDED12
1.16AVG XG (HOME)2.45
1.19AVG XG (AWAY)1.90
55%BTTS RATE56%
67%MODEL ACCURACY44%
2/7VALUE BETS2/7
-2.06uVALUE UNIT P&L-3.41u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Estoril
2W 2D 1L
Benfica
2W 2D 1L
HEAD TO HEAD
| EstorilvsBenfica | 1-3 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+9.4%
Kelly Units
2.62
ANALYSIS
away recent xG balance edge (+2.21); away Elo edge (+228); away travel burden higher (+7937 km)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
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