Primeira LigaSat, May 16 at 11:00 AM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Arouca
3-1
Tondela
42%
our prediction
26%
DRAW32%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-1)— correct
+12% edgeM · Medium
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome42%
|H 42%D 26%A 32%
|xG 1.6-1.3
|+11.5%on Home
home continuity edge (+0.51); historical analogs lean home (+0.32); away travel burden higher (+48 km)
Model prefers Home while the market leans Away; main drivers: home continuity edge (+0.51), historical analogs lean home (+0.32).
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.6
GOALS (A)
1.3
OVER 2.5
55%
BTTS
58%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
12/6/16RECORD (W/D/L)6/10/18
35%WIN RATE18%
47GOALS SCORED27
64GOALS CONCEDED55
1.36AVG XG (HOME)1.23
0.96AVG XG (AWAY)0.94
51%BTTS RATE51%
78%MODEL ACCURACY44%
4/7VALUE BETS3/7
+11.89uVALUE UNIT P&L+22.63u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Arouca
1W 1D 3L
Tondela
2W 1D 2L
HEAD TO HEAD
| AroucavsTondela | 3-1 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+11.5%
Kelly Units
3.93
ANALYSIS
home continuity edge (+0.51); historical analogs lean home (+0.32); away travel burden higher (+48 km)
MARKET DISAGREEMENT
Model prefers Home while the market leans Away; main drivers: home continuity edge (+0.51), historical analogs lean home (+0.32).
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Turkey U18 vs Hungary U18
Friendlies · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
34%31% D35%
Dunfermline vs Partick
Premiership · May 2026
1-1
Draw
36%29% D35%
Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Championship · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
47%23% D30%
Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Championship · May 2026
0-0
Draw
45%29% D27%
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap
Eredivisie · May 2026
3-1
Home Win
43%24% D33%