Primeira LigaMon, May 11 at 1:15 PM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet lost
Rio Ave
1-4
Sporting CP
14%
our prediction
16%
DRAW70%
our prediction
PREDICTIONAway(1-1)— correct
+7% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickAway70%
|H 14%D 16%A 70%
|xG 1.0-2.0
|+6.8%on Home
away Elo edge (+281); away travel burden higher (+8118 km); historical analogs lean away (+0.38)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.0
GOALS (A)
2.0
OVER 2.5
59%
BTTS
56%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
8/12/14RECORD (W/D/L)5/1/2
24%WIN RATE63%
35GOALS SCORED17
57GOALS CONCEDED11
1.36AVG XG (HOME)2.16
1.16AVG XG (AWAY)1.76
54%BTTS RATE55%
25%MODEL ACCURACY50%
1/7VALUE BETS2/9
+0.98uVALUE UNIT P&L+3.97u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Rio Ave
1W 3D 1L
Sporting CP
1W 2D 2L
HEAD TO HEAD
| Rio AvevsSporting CP | 1-4 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+6.8%
Kelly Units
1.81
ANALYSIS
away Elo edge (+281); away travel burden higher (+8118 km); historical analogs lean away (+0.38)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Scotland vs Ivory Coast
Friendlies · Mar 2026
0-1
Away Win
15%23% D63%
Mazatlán vs Toluca
Liga MX · Apr 2026
4-3
Home Win
14%21% D65%
Sporting Kansas City vs Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer · May 2026
1-1
Draw
16%20% D64%
Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer · Apr 2026
2-1
Home Win
16%21% D64%
Estoril vs Benfica
Primeira Liga · May 2026
1-3
Away Win
20%17% D63%