Primeira LigaMon, May 4 at 1:15 PM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Sporting CP
5-1
Guimaraes
78%
our prediction
15%
DRAW7%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(2-0)— correct
+1% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome78%
|H 78%D 15%A 7%
|xG 2.4-0.9
|+1.3%on Home
home Elo edge (+204); away travel burden higher (+8101 km); historical analogs lean home (+0.55)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
2.4
GOALS (A)
0.9
OVER 2.5
63%
BTTS
53%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
5/1/2RECORD (W/D/L)12/6/16
63%WIN RATE35%
17GOALS SCORED39
11GOALS CONCEDED51
2.16AVG XG (HOME)1.63
1.76AVG XG (AWAY)1.36
55%BTTS RATE53%
50%MODEL ACCURACY43%
2/9VALUE BETS3/6
+3.97uVALUE UNIT P&L+2.59u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Sporting CP
1W 2D 2L
Guimaraes
2W 0D 3L
HEAD TO HEAD
| Sporting CPvsGuimaraes | 5-1 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+1.3%
Kelly Units
0.65
ANALYSIS
home Elo edge (+204); away travel burden higher (+8101 km); historical analogs lean home (+0.55)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
Liga MX · May 2026
1-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch
Eredivisie · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Spain U17 vs Ukraine U17
Friendlies · Apr 2026
4-0
Home Win
83%11% D6%
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Premiership · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
74%16% D9%
Canada vs Iceland
Friendlies · Mar 2026
2-2
Draw
80%13% D8%