LaLigaSun, May 17 at 11:00 AM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet lost
Atletico Madrid
1-0
Girona
52%
our prediction
26%
DRAW22%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-0)— correct
+1% edgeH · High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome52%
|H 52%D 26%A 22%
|xG 1.9-1.0
|+0.6%on Draw
home coach stability edge (+4923 days); home Elo edge (+155); historical analogs lean home (+0.43)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.9
GOALS (A)
1.0
OVER 2.5
54%
BTTS
53%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
0/0/0RECORD (W/D/L)9/14/15
-WIN RATE24%
0GOALS SCORED39
0GOALS CONCEDED55
1.40AVG XG (HOME)1.30
1.30AVG XG (AWAY)1.02
55%BTTS RATE53%
40%MODEL ACCURACY22%
5/12VALUE BETS4/8
+4.58uVALUE UNIT P&L+1.43u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Atletico Madrid
2W 0D 3L
Girona
1W 3D 1L
HEAD TO HEAD
| Atletico MadridvsGirona | 1-0 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Draw
Edge
+0.6%
Kelly Units
0.50
ANALYSIS
home coach stability edge (+4923 days); home Elo edge (+155); historical analogs lean home (+0.43)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Tre Fiori vs Larne
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
0-1
Away Win
50%27% D23%
Sabah FA vs The New Saints
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
2-0
Home Win
49%27% D24%
KI Klaksvik vs Atert Bissen
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Home Win
48%28% D24%
Kauno Žalgiris vs Drita
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
1-1
Draw
48%27% D24%
Floriana vs Shamrock Rovers
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
2-0
Home Win
49%28% D24%