LaLigaSun, Apr 26 at 1:00 PM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Villarreal
2-1
Celta Vigo
51%
our prediction
24%
DRAW25%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-0)— correct
+3% edgeH · High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome51%
|H 51%D 24%A 25%
|xG 1.5-1.1
|+3.1%on Home
home recent xG balance edge (+0.96); historical analogs point to a decisive result (+0.08); home shot volume edge (+3.60)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.5
GOALS (A)
1.1
OVER 2.5
48%
BTTS
51%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
0/1/7RECORD (W/D/L)14/12/12
0%WIN RATE37%
5GOALS SCORED53
18GOALS CONCEDED48
1.63AVG XG (HOME)1.78
1.41AVG XG (AWAY)1.05
53%BTTS RATE52%
22%MODEL ACCURACY38%
2/7VALUE BETS3/7
-4.84uVALUE UNIT P&L-0.43u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Villarreal
1W 1D 3L
Celta Vigo
2W 1D 2L
HEAD TO HEAD
| VillarrealvsCelta Vigo | 2-1 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+3.1%
Kelly Units
1.25
ANALYSIS
home recent xG balance edge (+0.96); historical analogs point to a decisive result (+0.08); home shot volume edge (+3.60)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul
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Away Win
50%26% D24%
CF Pachuca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
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Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas
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RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez
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58%22% D20%
Partick vs Dunfermline
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Home Win
53%24% D23%