LaLigaSun, Apr 26 at 1:00 PM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Villarreal
2-1
Celta Vigo
51%
our prediction
24%
DRAW
25%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-0)correct
+3% edgeH · High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday read
PickHome51%
|
H 51%D 24%A 25%
|
xG 1.5-1.1
|
+3.1%on Home

home recent xG balance edge (+0.96); historical analogs point to a decisive result (+0.08); home shot volume edge (+3.60)

First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.

GOALS (H)
1.5
GOALS (A)
1.1
OVER 2.5
48%
BTTS
51%
RADAR COMPARISON
WIN RATE0%0%XG1.51.4BTTS53%52%ACCURACY30%33%VALUE WIN%38%38%VALUE ROI-1.35u-3.31uVillarrealCelta Vigo
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
0/0/0RECORD (W/D/L)0/0/0
-WIN RATE-
0GOALS SCORED0
0GOALS CONCEDED0
1.63AVG XG (HOME)1.78
1.41AVG XG (AWAY)1.05
53%BTTS RATE52%
30%MODEL ACCURACY33%
3/8VALUE BETS3/8
-1.35uVALUE UNIT P&L-3.31u

No fixture news yet.

RECENT FORM
Villarreal
1W 1D 3L
Celta Vigo
2W 1D 2L
HEAD TO HEAD
VillarrealvsCelta Vigo2-1
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+3.1%
Kelly Units
1.25
ANALYSIS

home recent xG balance edge (+0.96); historical analogs point to a decisive result (+0.08); home shot volume edge (+3.60)

SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Vardar Skopje vs KuPS
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
0-2
Away Win
44%27% D29%
Tre Fiori vs Larne
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
0-1
Away Win
50%27% D23%
Sabah FA vs The New Saints
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2-0
Home Win
49%27% D24%
KI Klaksvik vs Atert Bissen
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
2-1
Home Win
48%28% D24%
Kauno Žalgiris vs Drita
UEFA Champions League · Jul 2026
1-1
Draw
48%27% D24%