BuLiSat, May 16 at 7:30 AM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Union Berlin
4-0
FC Augsburg
45%
our prediction
23%
DRAW33%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-1)— correct
+8% edgeM · Medium
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome45%
|H 45%D 23%A 33%
|xG 1.6-1.6
|+8.5%on Home
home shot volume edge (+8.00); away recent xG balance edge (+1.02); away venue split edge (+0.40)
Model prefers Home while the market leans Away; main drivers: home shot volume edge (+8.00), away recent xG balance edge (+1.02).
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.6
GOALS (A)
1.6
OVER 2.5
62%
BTTS
64%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
10/9/15RECORD (W/D/L)12/7/15
29%WIN RATE35%
44GOALS SCORED45
58GOALS CONCEDED61
1.45AVG XG (HOME)1.42
1.17AVG XG (AWAY)1.27
54%BTTS RATE58%
25%MODEL ACCURACY29%
5/7VALUE BETS3/7
+11.93uVALUE UNIT P&L+4.96u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Union Berlin
2W 1D 2L
FC Augsburg
2W 1D 2L
HEAD TO HEAD
| Union BerlinvsFC Augsburg | 4-0 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+8.5%
Kelly Units
3.13
ANALYSIS
home shot volume edge (+8.00); away recent xG balance edge (+1.02); away venue split edge (+0.40)
MARKET DISAGREEMENT
Model prefers Home while the market leans Away; main drivers: home shot volume edge (+8.00), away recent xG balance edge (+1.02).
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
CF Pachuca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Liga MX · May 2026
1-0
Home Win
50%25% D25%
Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Championship · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
47%23% D30%
Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Championship · May 2026
0-0
Draw
45%29% D27%
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap
Eredivisie · May 2026
3-1
Home Win
43%24% D33%
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
Premiership · May 2026
0-0
Draw
47%23% D29%