BuLiSat, May 16 at 7:30 AM
Full timePrediction missedValue bet lost
FC St. Pauli
1-3
VfL Wolfsburg
38%
our prediction
24%
DRAW38%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-1)— actual: Away
+5% edgeL · Low
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome38%
|H 38%D 24%A 38%
|xG 1.5-1.6
|+4.9%on Home
away recent xG balance edge (+1.39); historical analogs still point to a decisive result (+0.00); away venue split edge (+0.60)
Model prefers Home while the market leans Away; main drivers: away recent xG balance edge (+1.39), historical analogs still point to a decisive result (+0.00).
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.5
GOALS (A)
1.6
OVER 2.5
58%
BTTS
60%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
6/8/20RECORD (W/D/L)7/8/19
18%WIN RATE21%
29GOALS SCORED45
60GOALS CONCEDED69
1.18AVG XG (HOME)1.20
1.02AVG XG (AWAY)1.21
54%BTTS RATE55%
63%MODEL ACCURACY50%
2/7VALUE BETS4/7
-0.38uVALUE UNIT P&L+11.74u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
FC St. Pauli
2W 1D 2L
VfL Wolfsburg
2W 3D 0L
HEAD TO HEAD
| FC St. PaulivsVfL Wolfsburg | 1-3 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+4.9%
Kelly Units
1.65
ANALYSIS
away recent xG balance edge (+1.39); historical analogs still point to a decisive result (+0.00); away venue split edge (+0.60)
MARKET DISAGREEMENT
Model prefers Home while the market leans Away; main drivers: away recent xG balance edge (+1.39), historical analogs still point to a decisive result (+0.00).
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Turkey U18 vs Hungary U18
Friendlies · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
34%31% D35%
Dunfermline vs Partick
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1-1
Draw
36%29% D35%
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap
Eredivisie · May 2026
3-1
Home Win
43%24% D33%
Dunfermline vs Arbroath
Premiership · May 2026
1-0
Home Win
39%30% D31%
Waalwijk vs Willem II
Eredivisie · May 2026
0-1
Away Win
41%26% D33%