BuLiSat, May 16 at 7:30 AM
Full timePrediction missedValue bet lost
SC Freiburg
4-1
RB Leipzig
34%
our prediction
22%
DRAW44%
our prediction
PREDICTIONAway(1-2)— actual: Home
+4% edgeM · Medium
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickAway44%
|H 34%D 22%A 44%
|xG 1.4-2.0
|+3.9%on Away
historical analogs lean away (+0.33); away recent xG balance edge (+1.39); away venue split edge (+0.80)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.4
GOALS (A)
2.0
OVER 2.5
67%
BTTS
66%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
13/8/13RECORD (W/D/L)20/5/9
38%WIN RATE59%
51GOALS SCORED66
57GOALS CONCEDED47
1.47AVG XG (HOME)2.26
1.21AVG XG (AWAY)1.72
56%BTTS RATE57%
38%MODEL ACCURACY88%
2/7VALUE BETS2/7
-1.83uVALUE UNIT P&L-2.38u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
SC Freiburg
0W 1D 4L
RB Leipzig
1W 0D 4L
HEAD TO HEAD
| SC FreiburgvsRB Leipzig | 4-1 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Away
Edge
+3.9%
Kelly Units
1.35
ANALYSIS
historical analogs lean away (+0.33); away recent xG balance edge (+1.39); away venue split edge (+0.80)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Hull City vs Millwall
Championship · May 2026
0-0
Draw
28%28% D44%
CF Pachuca vs Toluca
Liga MX · May 2026
2-0
Home Win
39%23% D38%
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
UEFA Champions League · Apr 2026
1-1
Draw
29%26% D45%
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian
Premiership · May 2026
1-1
Draw
29%30% D42%
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers
Premiership · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
30%29% D40%