BuLiSat, May 9 at 7:30 AM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
RB Leipzig
2-1
FC St. Pauli
78%
our prediction
16%
DRAW6%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(2-0)— correct
+5% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickHome78%
|H 78%D 16%A 6%
|xG 2.4-0.8
|+4.5%on Home
home Elo edge (+222); home recent xG balance edge (+1.78); historical analogs lean home (+0.56)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
2.4
GOALS (A)
0.8
OVER 2.5
64%
BTTS
52%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
20/5/9RECORD (W/D/L)6/8/20
59%WIN RATE18%
66GOALS SCORED29
47GOALS CONCEDED60
2.26AVG XG (HOME)1.18
1.72AVG XG (AWAY)1.02
57%BTTS RATE54%
88%MODEL ACCURACY63%
2/7VALUE BETS2/7
-2.38uVALUE UNIT P&L-0.38u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
RB Leipzig
1W 0D 4L
FC St. Pauli
2W 1D 2L
HEAD TO HEAD
| RB LeipzigvsFC St. Pauli | 2-1 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Home
Edge
+4.5%
Kelly Units
3.52
ANALYSIS
home Elo edge (+222); home recent xG balance edge (+1.78); historical analogs lean home (+0.56)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Cruz Azul vs Atlas
Liga MX · May 2026
1-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch
Eredivisie · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
71%17% D12%
Spain U17 vs Ukraine U17
Friendlies · Apr 2026
4-0
Home Win
83%11% D6%
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Premiership · May 2026
3-0
Home Win
74%16% D9%
Burkina Faso vs Guinea-Bissau
Friendlies · Mar 2026
1-1
Draw
86%9% D5%