Serie ASun, May 17 at 4:00 AM
Full timePrediction correctValue bet won
Genoa
1-2
AC Milan
18%
our prediction
25%
DRAW57%
our prediction
PREDICTIONAway(0-1)— correct
+2% edgeH · High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Lineup watchPickAway57%
|H 18%D 25%A 57%
|xG 1.1-1.7
|+2.0%on Away
historical analogs lean away (+0.19); away Elo edge (+104); away season form edge (+0.72 PPG)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.1
GOALS (A)
1.7
OVER 2.5
52%
BTTS
53%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
0/0/0RECORD (W/D/L)0/0/0
-WIN RATE-
0GOALS SCORED0
0GOALS CONCEDED0
1.24AVG XG (HOME)1.72
1.06AVG XG (AWAY)1.51
52%BTTS RATE53%
78%MODEL ACCURACY44%
5/7VALUE BETS2/7
+10.69uVALUE UNIT P&L-4.94u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Genoa
2W 2D 1L
AC Milan
3W 1D 1L
HEAD TO HEAD
| GenoavsAC Milan | 1-2 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Away
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly Units
0.95
ANALYSIS
historical analogs lean away (+0.19); away Elo edge (+104); away season form edge (+0.72 PPG)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
USA vs Belgium
World Cup · Jul 2026
1-4
Away Win
18%21% D61%
Dundee Utd vs Rangers
Premiership · Jul 2026
1-1
Draw
19%25% D55%
Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX · Aug 2026
1-1
Draw
20%20% D60%
Atlas vs Cruz Azul
Liga MX · May 2026
2-3
Away Win
20%26% D54%
Falkirk vs Rangers
Premiership · May 2026
2-5
Away Win
25%21% D54%