Serie AMon, May 11 at 12:45 PM
Full timePrediction missedValue bet lost
Napoli
2-3
Bologna
59%
our prediction
26%
DRAW
15%
our prediction
PREDICTIONHome(1-0)actual: Away
+3% edgeH · High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday read
PickHome59%
|
H 59%D 26%A 15%
|
xG 1.8-0.9
|
+2.9%on Draw

home Elo edge (+127); home defensive availability edge (+0.87); historical analogs lean home (+0.36)

First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.

GOALS (H)
1.8
GOALS (A)
0.9
OVER 2.5
52%
BTTS
50%
RADAR COMPARISON
WIN RATE0%0%XG1.61.2BTTS52%50%ACCURACY44%63%VALUE WIN%0%29%VALUE ROI-9.86u-2.43uNapoliBologna
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
0/0/0RECORD (W/D/L)0/0/0
-WIN RATE-
0GOALS SCORED0
0GOALS CONCEDED0
1.70AVG XG (HOME)1.42
1.59AVG XG (AWAY)1.07
52%BTTS RATE50%
44%MODEL ACCURACY63%
0/7VALUE BETS2/7
-9.86uVALUE UNIT P&L-2.43u

News pulse

AI briefing around this fixture

Sentiment runs from -1 bearish to +1 bullish. Values near 0 mean the reporting is mixed or the signal is still weak.

Mixed / neutral0.002 items

Signal

Match moodMixed / neutral0.00

Napoli

Napoli suffered a 3-2 loss to Bologna, conceding a late goal, which negatively impacts their standing in the Serie A top-four race.

Bologna

Bologna achieved a 3-2 win against Napoli, scoring a stoppage-time goal, which is a strong positive outcome for their Serie A campaign.

AI readout

A stoppage time goal from Jonathan Rowe gave Bologna a 3-2 win against Napoli in a pulsating Serie A encounter on Monday that leaves the race for the top four in Italy extremely tight.

01

The provided article details a Serie A match where Bologna secured a 3-2 victory against Napoli with a stoppage-time goal.

02

This result tightens the race for the top four in Italy.

03

The article does not contain information relevant to MLS soccer news or fixtures.

Source rail

Updated May 13, 11:48 PM
RECENT FORM
Napoli
2W 1D 2L
Bologna
3W 2D 0L
HEAD TO HEAD
NapolivsBologna2-3
VALUE BET
Outcome
Draw
Edge
+2.9%
Kelly Units
0.95
ANALYSIS

home Elo edge (+127); home defensive availability edge (+0.87); historical analogs lean home (+0.36)

SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Egypt U19 vs Oman U19
Friendlies · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
58%23% D18%
RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez
Ligue 1 · May 2026
2-3
Away Win
58%22% D20%
Partick vs Dunfermline
Premiership · May 2026
2-1
Home Win
53%24% D23%
Toluca vs CF Pachuca
Liga MX · May 2026
0-1
Away Win
55%25% D20%
Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain
UEFA Champions League · May 2026
1-1
Draw
64%18% D18%