Serie ASun, May 3 at 7:00 AM
Full timePrediction missedValue bet lost
Sassuolo
2-0
AC Milan
16%
our prediction
21%
DRAW63%
our prediction
PREDICTIONAway(0-1)— actual: Home
+7% edgeVH · Very High
FORECAST1 snapshot
Matchday readPickAway63%
|H 16%D 21%A 63%
|xG 1.1-1.7
|+7.2%on Away
away travel burden higher (+8884 km); away continuity edge (+0.65); away Elo edge (+116)
First reading — sparklines appear as the model re-evaluates closer to kickoff.
GOALS (H)
1.1
GOALS (A)
1.7
OVER 2.5
54%
BTTS
55%
RADAR COMPARISON
SIDE-BY-SIDE STATS
14/7/17RECORD (W/D/L)20/10/8
37%WIN RATE53%
46GOALS SCORED53
50GOALS CONCEDED35
1.22AVG XG (HOME)1.72
1.08AVG XG (AWAY)1.51
51%BTTS RATE53%
57%MODEL ACCURACY38%
3/6VALUE BETS1/6
-0.33uVALUE UNIT P&L-5.90u
No fixture news yet.
RECENT FORM
Sassuolo
1W 1D 3L
AC Milan
3W 1D 1L
HEAD TO HEAD
| SassuolovsAC Milan | 2-0 |
VALUE BET
Outcome
Away
Edge
+7.2%
Kelly Units
3.89
ANALYSIS
away travel burden higher (+8884 km); away continuity edge (+0.65); away Elo edge (+116)
SIMILAR PAST FIXTURES
Resolved matches with comparable probability profiles
Motherwell vs Celtic
Premiership · May 2026
2-3
Away Win
18%22% D59%
Kosovo vs Türkiye
World Cup - Qualification Europe · Mar 2026
0-1
Away Win
23%21% D57%
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
World Cup - Qualification Europe · Mar 2026
1-1
Draw
16%27% D57%
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
UEFA Champions League · Apr 2026
1-2
Away Win
24%20% D55%
Scotland vs Ivory Coast
Friendlies · Mar 2026
0-1
Away Win
15%23% D63%